Tropical Update – Sept 12, 2016


Subject: RE: Tropical Update – NWS Tuesday Afternoon
Importance: High

The disturbance is moving north to northwest at 10-15 miles per hour parallel to the northeast coast of Florida. The good news is that it will be moving out of our area, however it will be a problem for St. Johns County northward this evening and through the overnight hours.  Read the Tropical Update Sept 12, 2016.


  • Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that the tropical area of low pressure is, Invest 93L, located over Daytona Beach, Florida, continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, with winds to tropical storm force along or just offshore of portions of the northeast Florida coast.
  • This system is very close to having the organization required of a tropical cyclone, and advisories could be initiated later this afternoon and now has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours.
  • The next name on the 2016 Atlantic storm name list is Julia.
  • Regardless of development, the low is expected to north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph today, near and parallel to the northeast coast of Florida, and then moving inland over the Suwannee Valley on Wednesday.
  • A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave, Invest Area 95L is located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
  • Slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
  • Invest 95L has a 30% (low) chance of development in the next 48 hours, and a 50% (medium) chance of development through the next five days.
  • Tropical Storm Ian is located 895 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, and currently has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
  • Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph.

Florida Outlook:

  • Tropical Storm Ian does not pose a threat to Florida.
  • Invest 93L will continue to produce scattered showers and some gusty winds to the Florida Peninsula today and tomorrow.  Heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes could also occur.
  • At this point, it is too early to know what, if any, impacts we might see from Invest 95

Be safe!


73, Steve WB4OMM

Steve Szabo WB4OMM
NFL Section Manager
ARRL, The National Association for Amateur Radio™

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